Projected changes in recurrence time (in years) for annual highest temperatures that occurred, on average, once in 10, 20, and 50 years in the late-20th century across Canada, as simulated by Earth system models contributing to fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under a low emission scenario RCP2.6 (upper) and a high emission scenario RCP8.5 (lower). The shading represents the range between the 25th and 75th percentiles.
Values are computed based on Kharin et al., 2013, adapted from ECCC, 2016.