Figure ES3 — Canada’s Changing Climate Report

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Observed changes in annual precipitation across Canada, 1948–2012, based on linear trends. From Chapter 4 Figure 4.15.

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Canada in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action is the national assessment of how and why Canada’s climate is changing, the impacts of these changes on our communities, environment, and economy, and how we are adapting.

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Headlines

Summary

Chapter 1

Chapter 2

Chapter 3

Chapter 4

Chapter 5

Chapter 6

Chapter 7

Chapter 8

Headline Statements

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Headline Statements

Executive Summary

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Introduction
Global context
Temperature changes
Changes in rainfall and snowfall
Changes in climate extremes
Changes in snow and ice
Changes in freshwater availability
Ocean changes
Sea level change
Our future: choices matter

About This Report

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1.1Introduction
1.2Purpose and scope
1.3Sources of information and process of development
- 1.3.1Sources of information
- 1.3.2Process of development
1.4Guide to the report

Understanding Observed Global Climate Change

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Key Messages
Summary
2.1Introduction
2.2Observed changes in the global climate system
2.3 Understanding the causes of observed global climate change

Modelling Future Climate Change

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Key Messages
Summary
3.1Introduction
3.2Future climate change and climate forcing
- Section summary
3.3Modelling the response of the climate system to external forcing
- 3.3.1Earth system models
- 3.3.2Sources of confidence and uncertainty
- 3.3.3Global-scale climate projections
- 3.3.4Compatible emissions
- Section summary
3.4Cumulative carbon dioxide and global temperature change
3.5Regional downscaling

Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Across Canada

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Key Messages
Summary
4.1Introduction
4.2Temperature
- 4.2.1 Mean temperature
  - 4.2.1.1Observed changes
  - 4.2.1.2Causes of observed changes
  - 4.2.1.3 Projected changes and uncertainties
- 4.2.2Temperature extremes and other indices
  - 4.2.2.1Observed changes
  - 4.2.2.2Causes of observed changes
  - 4.2.2.3Projected changes and uncertainties
- Section summary
4.3Precipitation
- 4.3.1Mean Precipitation
  - 4.3.1.1 Observed changes
  - 4.3.1.2Causes of observed changes
  - 4.3.1.3Projected changes and uncertainties
- 4.3.2Extreme precipitation
  - 4.3.2.1Observed changes
  - 4.3.2.2Projected changes and uncertainties
- Section summary
4.4Attribution of extreme events
- 4.4.1 Attribution of two recent events
  - 4.4.1.12013 Southern Alberta flood
  - 4.4.1.22016 Fort McMurray wildfire
- Section summary

Changes in Snow, Ice, and Permafrost Across Canada

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Key Messages
Summary
5.1Introduction
5.2Snow cover
5.3Sea ice
5.4Glaciers and ice caps
5.5Lake and river ice
5.6Permafrost
5.7Discussion

Changes in Freshwater Availability Across Canada

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Key Messages
Summary
6.1Introduction
6.2Surface runoff: streamflow
- 6.2.1Streamflow magnitude
- 6.2.2Streamflow timing
- 6.2.3Streamflow regime
- 6.2.4Streamflow-related floods
- Section summary
6.3Surface water levels: lakes and wetlands
- 6.3.1Laurentian Great Lakes
- 6.3.2Other lakes
- 6.3.3Wetlands and deltas
- Section summary
6.4Soil moisture and drought
- 6.4.1Soil moisture
- 6.4.2 Drought
- Section summary
6.5Groundwater
- Section summary
Acknowledgements

Changes in Oceans Surrounding Canada

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Key Messages
Summary
7.1Introduction
7.2Ocean temperature
- 7.2.1Observations
  - 7.2.1.1 Northeast Pacific Ocean
  - 7.2.1.2Northwest Atlantic Ocean
  - 7.2.1.3Arctic Ocean
- 7.2.2Future projections
- Section summary
7.3Ocean salinity and density stratification
- 7.3.1Observations
  - 7.3.1.1Northeast Pacific Ocean
  - 7.3.1.2Northwest Atlantic Ocean
  - 7.3.1.3Arctic Ocean
- 7.3.2Future projections
- Section summary
7.4Marine winds, storms, and waves
- 7.4.1Marine winds and storms
- 7.4.2:Waves
- Section summary
7.5Sea level
- 7.5.1Historical sea level
- 7.5.2 Future projections
  - 7.5.2.1Global sea-level rise
  - 7.5.2.2Vertical land motion
  - 7.5.2.3Other effects
  - 7.5.2.4Projections of relative sea-level change
- 7.5.3Extreme water levels
- Section summary
7.6Ocean chemistry
- 7.6.1Ocean acidification
- 7.6.2Dissolved oxygen and hypoxia
- 7.6.3Ocean nutrients
- Section summary
Acknowledgments

Changes in Canada's Regions in a National and Global Context

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8.1Introduction
8.2Global context
8.3Changes across Canada
8.4Changes in Canada’s regions
- 8.4.1Changes in northern Canada
- 8.4.2Changes in southern Canada
  - 8.4.2.1:Atlantic region
  - 8.4.2.2Quebec region
  - 8.4.2.3Ontario region
  - 8.4.2.4Prairies region
  - 8.4.2.5British Columbia region
8.5Conclusions