International Dimensions

This chapter assesses the risks and opportunities facing Canada from indirect impacts of climate change and discusses action taken to assess and manage them. It focuses on Arctic shipping and sovereignty over the Northwest Passage, transboundary resource management, international trade, climate-related human migration and displacement, as well as Canada’s role in supporting climate risk reduction and adaptation through international assistance. The impacts of climate change and variability do not stop at national borders; they interact with social processes, structures and institutions that can amplify, spread or dampen risk (Moser and Hart, 2015). These pathways of impact include biophysical flows (e.g., freshwater resource sharing), trade and flows of finance and people (Stockholm Environment Institute, 2013). Actions taken to adapt to climate change can also have ramifications beyond the areas targeted for implementation (Stockholm Environment Institute, 2018). Therefore, it is important to explore vulnerabilities and impacts originating outside of Canada’s borders, as well as international dimensions of trends and events occurring in Canada, even though they are rarely accounted for in climate change assessments and adaptation planning (Challinor et al., 2017; Moser and Hart, 2015).

The scope of international dimensions of climate change and adaptation is vast, including transboundary, teleconnected and cascading effects (Benzie and Persson, 2019). Transboundary effects spread between neighbouring countries. Teleconnected effects spread through linkages over large distances. Cascading effects result from an initial hazard that generates a sequence of interacting impacts and responses. Figure 9.1 illustrates some of the indirect climate change impacts for Canada and related policy responses. Despite a growing awareness of the risks to a country from the observed and projected impacts of climate change globally, particularly in relation to national security (Canadian Forces College, 2018), the potential consequences for Canada remain poorly understood.

This chapter draws from several sources of published literature to explore select indirect climate impacts for Canada, representing a mix of transmission mechanisms, scales of impact and opportunities for adaptation. The chapter starts by describing the risks to Canada from increased foreign shipping and transportation in Canada’s Arctic waterways, focusing on the Northwest Passage and Canada’s sovereign claims thereto. It then examines the capacity of transboundary marine and freshwater agreements to adapt to the increased uncertainties posed by rapidly changing climate and hydrologic and ocean conditions, contrasting agreements in place between countries or governing marine basins with adaptive best practices. For both Arctic shipping and sovereignty and transboundary resource management, climate change adaptation includes actions to promote environmental stewardship, preserve long-term cooperation and recognize the unique roles of Indigenous people. The chapter then explores economic risks and opportunities for Canada from climate-related disruptions to supply chains and distribution networks and from shifting patterns of global trade in response to climate impacts. Adaptation in this context not only focuses on protecting Canada’s economic interests, but also acknowledges the negative effects of long-term adjustments in trade for communities beyond Canada’s borders. The final two sections relate to Canada’s capacity and will to engage on the global stage in stemming instability and conflict in climate-vulnerable regions of the world. After describing the links between climate and human migration, as well as climate and human security, the chapter assesses the implications of climate change on demands for immigration, refugee resettlement and international assistance programming in Canada.

The chapter concludes by identifying knowledge gaps and emerging issues that cut across impact areas. Further attention on adaptation governance in the context of cross-border risks, as well as Canada’s role in strengthening the climate resilience of global food systems are two emerging issues. The need for increased use of assessment tools that address the methodological challenges of bounding complex problems, as well as improved capacity in economic modelling are also highlighted. Overall, it is evident that Canada has an opportunity to show leadership in developing knowledge and tools to prepare for multi-faceted, multi-scale climate risks and in strengthening international cooperation to support global stability and the well-being of communities in a climate-disrupted world.

Shrinking sea ice resulting from climate change allows for increased marine traffic in the Arctic Ocean, including through the Northwest Passage (NWP). Climate change and its impacts underscore the need to strengthen rules and capacities for demonstrating Canada’s effective stewardship of the NWP and ensuring safe, secure and sustainable navigation as the ice melts.

Over the past decades, the extent and thickness of summer sea ice in Canada’s Arctic marine areas have steadily decreased. Physical access to Arctic resources and waters allows for increased economic activity and sea traffic, including through the Northwest Passage (NWP). The NWP links the Atlantic Ocean (Baffin Bay) and Pacific Ocean (Beaufort Sea). The shipping distance between New York and Shanghai through the NWP is about 20% shorter than that through the Panama Canal. On grounds of environmental protection, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea confers coastal Arctic countries like Canada the right to regulate vessel traffic in ice-covered waters, even in straits where foreign vessels could otherwise enjoy the right to unimpeded transit passage. Although summer sea ice might not disappear entirely for another 30 years, increased warming under climate change and reductions in sea ice could pose challenges for Canada’s legal arguments to regulate shipping across the channels and straits of the NWP. Sustained foreign use of these Arctic shipping lanes could render the NWP an international strait. Gradual physical access to maritime areas adds to the importance of bolstering Canada’s ability to proactively exercise stewardship of the NWP to achieve a combination of diplomatic, informational, military and socioeconomic objectives, with the protection of the rights of Indigenous people cutting across them all.

Canada’s transboundary marine and freshwater agreements were not created with climate change in mind. In collaboration with international partners, Canada has an opportunity to show leadership in preserving long-term cooperation and protecting shared resources by building on adaptive practices recognized as successful.

Despite differences in agreements governing sharing of marine and freshwater resources across international borders, one commonality is the general assumption that environmental conditions would remain static over time. In a changing climate, relying on this assumption risks unsustainable resource use that may destabilize existing cooperative relationships. As a significant contributor to international environmental negotiations, Canada is well positioned to help modernize transboundary resource management institutions to provide more resilient frameworks for coping with uncertainty, promoting environmental stewardship and improving representation of affected groups and Indigenous governments.

Canada is dependent on international trade and will increasingly experience economic effects from extreme weather and climate change impacts and adaptation elsewhere in the world, especially when occurring in countries with which Canada has strong trade ties.

Canada’s mixed economy is reliant on trade as a source of wealth and to satisfy consumer needs. The impacts of climate change around the world, such as sea-level rise and more intense extreme events, as well as actions taken in response to these impacts will alter patterns of global trade, with consequences for Canadian businesses, consumers and the economy. Disruptions to supply and distribution networks, changes in the availability and price of traded goods, and the creation of global markets for new adaptation solutions are among the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Weather-related disruptions to supply chains and short-term price spikes in staples heighten the need for Canadian firms and governments to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change impacts on global trade will present, including the negative effects of long-term adjustments in trade patterns for communities within and beyond Canada’s borders. Little published research exists about these indirect impacts of climate change or assessments of action by Canadian businesses and governments to understand and manage resulting risks and opportunities.

Tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, wildfires and food insecurity displace millions of people each year. Climate change will generate growing numbers of migrants by mid- to late century, especially in Least Developed Countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Canada will come under growing internal and external pressure to accept larger numbers of migrants from climate-disrupted regions.

Human migration and displacement can occur as a direct result of extreme weather and climate events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and wildfires, or as an indirect result of climate impacts on food supplies, freshwater availability and livelihoods. Migration responses to climatic risks are mediated by societal factors that affect adaptive capacity and by household characteristics. Globally, an average of 21 million people are displaced each year by floods, drought, storms, wildfire, extreme heat and other weather-related hazards. Climate change will exacerbate the frequency and severity of these events in many regions, and have particularly strong impacts on migration and displacement in Least Developed Countries in sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. Recent studies project a 50% increase in displacement risks with each additional degree Celsius of warming. Sea-level rise is already necessitating the relocation of small coastal communities in Alaska, Chesapeake Bay, the Gulf of Mexico, Fiji and Papua New Guinea. By 2100, rising seas will force the relocation of tens of millions of people living in coastal plains, river deltas and small island states, particularly in the Global South. Poverty and weak governance and institutions are root causes of large-scale or sudden displacements. As climate change intensifies, Canada can expect increased future demand for immigration from current source countries that are highly exposed to climate risks, such as the Philippines, China, India, Pakistan and Syria. The international community may also increasingly look to Canada to provide financial assistance and serve as a resettlement destination for people from highly vulnerable developing countries with historically few ties to Canada. Many heavily-populated coastal areas of the United States are highly exposed to extreme storms and floods, which will be amplified by rising sea levels. Most of those displaced will likely resettle within the U.S., but the scale of potential social and economic disruption that ensue merit monitoring for potential effects on established migrant networks to Canada.

Climate change can undermine human security in developing countries and increase demands for Canadian international assistance. Canada is addressing climate risk to development and humanitarian goals by providing financial and technical assistance for adaptation and climate resilience.

Developing countries have less capacity to adapt and are therefore more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change than developed countries. Reasons for this include structural challenges that lead to political or economic marginalization, weakened institutions, environmental degradation, inadequacies in existing infrastructure and different abilities to pay for adaptation. Climate change can undermine human security and increase demands on international assistance. Climate change can also act as a multiplier of existing threats and pressures unrelated to climate, increasing exposure to harm, social unrest, and the removal of freedoms and capacities to live with dignity. Global stability and the welfare of citizens in countries abroad is a long-standing focus of Canadian foreign policy. As climate change impacts increase and intensify, Canada can expect increased future demand for international assistance, including responding to humanitarian crises, particularly in countries where Canada is already active. In anticipation of these pressures, Canada is working with developing-country partners to address the impacts of climate change through its international assistance activities. This includes helping to strengthen vulnerable nations’ capacities to adapt to climate change through funding and programs that, among other outcomes, generate, increase access to, and facilitate the use of, knowledge, skills, infrastructure and technology needed to build climate resilience.

This chapter focused on risks and opportunities facing Canada from indirect impacts of climate change with international dimensions. For all issues considered, the research remains underdeveloped, particularly as it relates to international trade. Indirect impacts of climate change have long been neglected in Canadian adaptation research, partly because of the methodological complexities and multiple disciplines involved. Although adaptation—planned or proactive—is either not documented or not yet occurring in a consistent way across the policy and management issues assessed, there are examples of spontaneous or market-driven adaptation. The increase in Arctic shipping, migration decisions in response to climate-related disasters and diversification of raw material suppliers are just a few examples. It is challenging to assess the significance of excluding these transboundary, teleconnected or cascading effects in measuring Canada’s progress in adapting to climate change. Nevertheless, the information presented in this chapter sheds light on the potential perils of lagging behind in laying the groundwork for adaptation and in addressing the weaknesses in resilience and adaptive capacity that have already been identified (e.g., for Arctic shipping and sovereignty as well as transboundary resource management). In any case, without deep cuts in global GHGs to limit future climate change, it will become increasingly costly and challenging to sustain Canadians’ well-being in a climate-disrupted world (Curtin, 2019).

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